Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2003
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS
DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KTS. THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS
PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...BUT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STIR
THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEED THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS AVAILABLE AT
THIS TIME...THE AVN AND GFDL.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 106.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.4N 108.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 109.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 111.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 70 KT
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