ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2003 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED ABSENT FROM THE CENTER OF LINDA FOR ABOUT THE PAST 12 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE NEAR 27C. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.... LIKELY STABILIZING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE CLOUDS ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE AND LOOK TO HAVE ENVELOPED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THIS AFTERNOON... LINDA COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK STEERING FROM THE DISTANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER. THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE AIR...IT COULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.3N 117.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 117.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 18/1200Z 19.4N 118.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 19/0000Z 18.9N 119.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 19/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.4N 122.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.2N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC