Hurricane LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA CONTINUES
TO BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON AN
AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FROM  TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA...AND SOME 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS NOTED IN A 16/1326Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AGAIN NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVENTIONAL FIX LOCATION AND CLOSER TO THE
16/1553Z SSMI AND 16/1326Z QUIKSCAT POSITIONS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. IT APPEARS THAT LINDA HAS
MADE THE TURN TO THE WEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LINDA GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS AND OVER 27C OR WARMER
SSTS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
INGESTS COOLER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST...AND
ALSO ENTRAINS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
COULD KEEP THE CIRCULATION ALIVE AS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM. BY 96 HOURS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL AIR TO MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP.
ACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS LINDA BACK TO 46 KT IN 120
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LINDA TO REGAIN
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 96 HOURS...WHICH IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE CIRCULATION SURVIVES THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 20.7N 116.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N 116.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.6N 117.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.1N 118.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.6N 119.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    35 KT
 
 
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