ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS SUGGESTS THAT LINDA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 0445 WHICH SHOWED AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BASED ON A CENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AIR FORCE GLOBAL USING THE DMSP SATELLITE WAS ABLE TO SEE THIS CENTER AND MADE AN ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THUS...LINDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT LINDA WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE TO THE LEFT OF THE LAST PACKAGE AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST TRACKS. THIS NEW TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER 27 DEG C OR GREATER WATER TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE INVARIANT IN TIME BEGINNING AT 24 HOURS AND THERE AFTER. SHIP ELYA8 HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AT 0600Z WAS ABOUT 85 NM FROM THE CENTER. IT OBSERVED 15 FOOT SEAS... 1006.5 MBS...82 DEG F WATER TEMP AND WNW/30 KT WINDS. THIS CONFIRMED THE RADII USED FOR THE 34 KT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEAS IN THIS QUADRANT. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 20.5N 114.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.7N 115.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.8N 116.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 117.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 120.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 121.7W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 17.3N 123.2W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC