Hurricane LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS SUGGESTS THAT 
LINDA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED
BY AN SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 0445 WHICH SHOWED AN EXPOSED LLCC
WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BASED ON A
CENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  AIR FORCE GLOBAL USING THE DMSP
SATELLITE WAS ABLE TO SEE THIS CENTER AND MADE AN ESTIMATE OF 55
KNOTS.  THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
THUS...LINDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL
IN AGREEMENT THAT LINDA WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED A SIGNIFICANT
DISTANCE TO THE LEFT OF THE LAST PACKAGE AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
GFS AND GFDL FORECAST TRACKS.

THIS NEW TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER 27 DEG C OR GREATER WATER
TEMPERATURE.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE INVARIANT
IN TIME BEGINNING AT 24 HOURS AND THERE AFTER.

SHIP ELYA8 HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AT
0600Z WAS ABOUT 85 NM FROM THE CENTER.  IT OBSERVED 15 FOOT SEAS... 
1006.5 MBS...82 DEG F WATER TEMP AND WNW/30 KT WINDS.  THIS
CONFIRMED THE RADII USED FOR THE 34 KT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEAS IN
THIS QUADRANT.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 20.5N 114.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N 115.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N 116.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N 117.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 120.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 121.7W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 17.3N 123.2W    50 KT
 
 
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