ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A CURVED BAND OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE. AN EARLY MORNING TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER IS PROBABLY A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH CIRRUS FANNING OUT NICELY TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB... THUS LINDA HAS FORMED. THE RELOCATION OF LINDA AND THE CURRENT MOTION CHANGING FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT SHEAR FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LINDA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE... A FAVORABLE PLACE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSERVATIVE MAINLY BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ON THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THE CENTER BECOMES EMBEDDED OR CLOSER TO THE STRONG BANDING FEATURE. SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE IDEA THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND THE DISTANT PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... WITH SOME MODEST TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT BUMPS AGAINST THE HIGH AND WEAKENS DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA AS THE UKMET MODEL SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS ALONG 120W THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTHWARD TURN. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK TO THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN TO THE LEFT OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGH SHEAR CONDITIONS. FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.5N 109.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.2N 110.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 113.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 119.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.2N 121.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC