Tropical Storm LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A
CURVED BAND OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE.  AN EARLY
MORNING TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER IS PROBABLY A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH CIRRUS FANNING OUT NICELY TO THE
NORTH. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB... THUS LINDA HAS FORMED.  
 
THE RELOCATION OF LINDA AND THE CURRENT MOTION CHANGING FROM
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARM WATER
AND IN LIGHT SHEAR FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LINDA IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE... A
FAVORABLE PLACE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
CONSERVATIVE MAINLY BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT EMBEDDED IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ON THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THE CENTER BECOMES
EMBEDDED OR CLOSER TO THE STRONG BANDING FEATURE. SHIPS MODEL
BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...A
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.  

THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE IDEA THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AROUND THE DISTANT PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA... WITH SOME MODEST TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT BUMPS
AGAINST THE HIGH AND WEAKENS DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA AS
THE UKMET MODEL SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS ALONG 120W THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR
A NORTHWARD TURN.  FOR NOW WE WILL STICK TO THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE
WILL HOLD AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN TO THE LEFT OVER
COOLER WATER AND HIGH SHEAR CONDITIONS.

FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 16.5N 109.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.2N 110.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 113.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N 119.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 121.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W    25 KT
 
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