ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST IS INDICATED. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO HIGH SHEAR. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.5N 108.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 109.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.6N 122.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC