ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2003 AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS WERE VISIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE QUESTION WAS... WAS ONE OF THESE THE ACTUAL CENTER OR WERE THEY ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CENTER. ADDITIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION HAS NOT REALLY ANSWERED THE QUESTION. THE WESTERN MOST CENTER HAS ACTUALLY MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE EASTERN MOST IS JUST ABOUT GONE. TAFB AND SAB ALSO ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS TAKEN IN THIS PACKAGE...WITH A BROADER CIRCULATION DETERMINING THE INITIAL POSITION. THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE SYSTEM AND KEVIN HAS BEEN DOWN GRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. SHORTLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF KEVIN. THIS SHOULD STEER KEVIN BASICALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U. S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SINCE KEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKENESS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD AS LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 22.1N 115.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 22.8N 116.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 120.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 24.2N 122.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 24.1N 124.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.1N 127.7W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC