ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2003 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1335Z SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WITH RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY BE TOO HIGH...THE DATA SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA SUPPORT ALSO SUPPORT THE UPGRADE. KEVIN CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...AND MULTIPLE SWIRLS OF LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KEVIN. THIS SHOULD STEER KEVIN BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD TO THE U. S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SINCE KEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKENESS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD AS LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT. THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS. EVEN AS KEVIN IS BEING NAMED...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PEAKING AS IT HEADS FOR COLDER WATER. THE CENTER IS BECOMING LESS INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 23C-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. KEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24-36 HR AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 72-96 HR...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD SWIRL NEAR 21.8N114.2W IS THE ACTUAL CENTER AND NOT ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND A FASTER WEAKENING FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.0N 114.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 22.2N 117.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.7N 119.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 23.1N 120.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC