ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2003 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 12Z TRMM PASS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. FURTHER RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND GFDL AGREE WITH THIS INITIAL MOTION FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OCCURS. BOTH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE INFLUENCED BY A SECOND LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM THE BEST AND MOVES ELEVEN-E ON A WESTERLY TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL SOLUTION OF THE GFS GUIDANCE. THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY. THE NEW ADJUSTED TRACK TAKES THE DEPRESSION INTO COOLER WATERS...LESS THAN 26C...AFTER 24 HOURS AND WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.2N 114.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.6N 115.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 22.3N 116.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 118.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.3N 120.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC