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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2003

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 12Z TRMM PASS
INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS ABOUT A
DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. FURTHER
RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME
AVAILABLE.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND GFDL AGREE WITH THIS INITIAL MOTION FOR THE
FIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OCCURS. 
BOTH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE INFLUENCED BY A SECOND LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM THE BEST AND
MOVES ELEVEN-E ON A WESTERLY TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL SOLUTION OF THE GFS GUIDANCE. 

THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY.  THE NEW ADJUSTED
TRACK TAKES THE DEPRESSION INTO COOLER WATERS...LESS THAN
26C...AFTER 24 HOURS AND WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 21.2N 114.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 21.6N 115.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 22.3N 116.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 22.9N 118.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.3N 120.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC