Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E REMAINS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOT
CLEARLY DEFINED.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
ALL THREE CENTERS AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEER THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE.  ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODEL INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW
A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND CALLS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME
PREDOMINANT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS FORECAST. 
 
THE DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C-29C...BUT
EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY THE WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER.  GLOBAL MODELS AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BUT THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER TEMPERATURES OF
LESS THAN 26C AFTER 48 HR.  THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 19.9N 113.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 114.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 21.3N 116.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 21.9N 117.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC