Hurricane JIMENA

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HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT...10
NM DIAMETER...PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE. INFRARED IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF...AND GREATER SYMMETRY TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND JIMENA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA FURTHER SUPPORT THIS TREND...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. UKMET
CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER...BEING SLOWER TO BUILD THE
RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
JIMENA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
ISOTHERM AND WILL SOON BE ENTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AS IT
PASSES WEST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS LEVEL AT 85 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A VERY GRADUAL
DECAY THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE AND FITS
THE INTENSITY TREND OF THE GFDL MODEL. THE PROSPECT FOR SOME SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENTERS INTO A REGION OF WARMING SSTS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 17.3N 139.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 17.7N 141.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.8N 144.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.9N 147.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 151.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N 157.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 18.0N 163.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 168.5W    70 KT
 
 
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