ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003 JIMENA IS INTENSIFYING AS INDICATED BY INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. A 0556Z SSMI PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE CONCENTRATED COLD CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT. THE SYSTEM IS GAINING MORE LATITUDE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/12...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO WELL-TIMED SSMI PASSES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MOTION IS PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE BEGIN A TURN TO THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF HAWAII. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION IS EXPECTED BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS. THIS TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOSTLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS/GUNA CONSENSUS. JIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28C WATERS...BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IT SHOULD SPEND A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER SUB-26C WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE LEVELED OFF AT 70 KT AFTER 36 HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT TURN TO THE WEST AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.4N 134.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 136.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 139.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 18.0N 142.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 145.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 151.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 156.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 18.0N 160.5W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC