ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003 FIRST-LIGHT VISUAL IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A DISTINCT CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE CENTER REMERGES OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. IGNACIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THE CENTER LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AROUND 3 KT. IGNACIO REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED FOR NOW...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.3N 112.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 26.6N 112.9W 20 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 26.9N 113.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 29/0000Z 27.3N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC