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Hurricane IGNACIO


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003
 
IGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE RISEN MORE THAN 4 MB DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED AREA ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COASTLINE. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A 27/0448Z SSMI OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL INLAND
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 35 NMI WEST OF LORETO.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE AT NCEP
...SO ONLY THE NOGAPS...NAVY COAMPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS WERE
AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS MAINTAIN A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO INLAND OVER BAJA UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION COULD REDEVELOP WEST OF BAJA...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES
OFFSHORE ARE 25C OR COLDER WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.
 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REMAIN
INLAND AND RAPIDLY DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND
PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
WHILE MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED JUST WEST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
UPSLOPE AREAS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 26.1N 111.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 27.1N 112.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 27.7N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.4N 113.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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