Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003
 
IGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE RISEN MORE THAN 4 MB DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED AREA ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COASTLINE. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A 27/0448Z SSMI OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL INLAND
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 35 NMI WEST OF LORETO.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE AT NCEP
...SO ONLY THE NOGAPS...NAVY COAMPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS WERE
AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS MAINTAIN A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO INLAND OVER BAJA UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION COULD REDEVELOP WEST OF BAJA...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES
OFFSHORE ARE 25C OR COLDER WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.
 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REMAIN
INLAND AND RAPIDLY DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND
PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
WHILE MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED JUST WEST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
UPSLOPE AREAS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 26.1N 111.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 27.1N 112.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 27.7N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.4N 113.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC