ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003 DESPITE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD TOP CONVECTION...IGNACIO CONTINUES TO APPEAR LESS ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMGERY. USING A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE INLAND IN 6-12 HOURS WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL ONCE AGAIN IS SUGGESTING A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS QUICK AS SHIPS TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ INDICATE THE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS PASSED NORTH OF THAT LOCATION AND THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION HAS RESUMED AFTER A BRIEF STALL. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL STILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.5N 110.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 24.7N 111.1W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 111.6W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/1200Z 25.8N 112.1W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 112.6W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 30/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 31/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC