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Hurricane IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003
 
DESPITE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD TOP CONVECTION...IGNACIO CONTINUES TO
APPEAR LESS ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMGERY. USING A COMPROMISE OF
THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE INLAND IN 6-12 HOURS
WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL ONCE
AGAIN IS SUGGESTING A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT AS QUICK AS SHIPS TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. 
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ INDICATE THE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS
PASSED NORTH OF THAT LOCATION AND THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
HAS RESUMED AFTER A BRIEF STALL. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ENOUGH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO MAINTAIN A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STEERING
CURRENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.
 
THE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL 
STILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.5N 110.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 24.7N 111.1W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N 111.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.8N 112.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N 112.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     31/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC