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Hurricane IGNACIO (Text)

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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003

IGNACIO IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE LAND MASS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  USING
A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SUPPORTS ABOUT 65 KT.  SINCE THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING AFFECTED BY LAND...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS EVEN FASTER
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
STILL VERY SLOW.  THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTERWARDS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MORE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE STEERING
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.

THE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND
FLOODING ARE STILL A SERIOUS THREAT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 24.3N 110.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 110.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.9N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.3N 111.7W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     30/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W    30 KT
 
 
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