Hurricane IGNACIO
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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003
IGNACIO IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE LAND MASS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. USING
A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SUPPORTS ABOUT 65 KT. SINCE THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING AFFECTED BY LAND...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS EVEN FASTER
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE.
THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
STILL VERY SLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MORE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE STEERING
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND
FLOODING ARE STILL A SERIOUS THREAT.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.3N 110.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 110.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.9N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.3N 111.7W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W 30 KT
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