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Hurricane IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2003

ALTHOUGH EARLIER TRMM IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL EYE...THE EYE IS NO
LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DEEP CONVECTION
HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE THAN BEFORE...AND 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT ABOUT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS IGNACIO AT THIS
STRENGTH FOR 24 H...WEAKENING COULD TAKE PLACE SOONER THAN
INDICATED IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA.

IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
REMAINS SERIOUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 24.3N 110.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 24.6N 110.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N 110.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N 111.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N 112.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 29.0N 115.0W    35 KT
 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC