ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2003 IGNACIO HAS REGAINED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND AN EYE FEATURE BRIEFLY REAPPEARED IN INFRARED IMAGERY BEFORE BECOMING CLOUD COVERED AGAIN. AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON THE BRIEF EYE APPEARANCE AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ...OR 320/02. THE SHORT TERM MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AT BEST WITH IGNACIO HAVING BRIEFLY BECOME STATIONARY A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS...IGNACIO HAS BEEN BASICALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON 25/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING ESSENTIALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 700 MB AND 500 MB WINDS AND HEIGHTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO A TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS KEEP IGNACIO NEAR OR EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON MAINTAINING A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND SHOW A FORWARD SPEED OF LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD. THE RESULT IS THAT LOCAL MESOSCALE EFFECTS SHOULD DETERMINE THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF IGNACIO. DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED OVER THE VERY WARM WATER...NEAR 32C...OF THE SEA OF CORTES...AND THAT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CENTER EAST OF OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL. THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS RETAINED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IGNACIO REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO NEARLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS SO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST ...THE SEA OF CORTES NARROWS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF LA PAZ AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 'SQUEEZE EFFECT' THAT SHOULD INHIBIT THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW...AND ALSO CREATE MORE LAND INTERACTION. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 24.0N 109.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 24.4N 110.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 110.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 25.3N 110.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.4N 112.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 28.5N 113.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC