Hurricane IGNACIO

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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2003
 
IGNACIO HAS REGAINED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND AN EYE FEATURE
BRIEFLY REAPPEARED IN INFRARED IMAGERY BEFORE BECOMING CLOUD
COVERED AGAIN. AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED 
ON THE BRIEF EYE APPEARANCE AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 
77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
...OR 320/02. THE SHORT TERM MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AT BEST WITH
IGNACIO HAVING BRIEFLY BECOME STATIONARY A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS...IGNACIO HAS BEEN BASICALLY
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON
25/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING ESSENTIALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
700 MB AND 500 MB WINDS AND HEIGHTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD
AGREEMENT AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL
MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO A TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS KEEP IGNACIO NEAR OR
EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE
ON MAINTAINING A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND SHOW A FORWARD
SPEED OF LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD. THE RESULT IS
THAT LOCAL MESOSCALE EFFECTS SHOULD DETERMINE THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
IGNACIO. DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED
OVER THE VERY WARM WATER...NEAR 32C...OF THE SEA OF CORTES...AND
THAT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CENTER EAST OF OR NEAR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL. 
 
THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS RETAINED
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IGNACIO REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO NEARLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS SO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
...THE SEA OF CORTES NARROWS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF LA PAZ AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 'SQUEEZE EFFECT' THAT SHOULD INHIBIT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW...AND ALSO CREATE MORE LAND INTERACTION.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 24.0N 109.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 110.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 110.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N 110.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.4N 112.2W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 28.5N 113.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W    55 KT
 
 
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