ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003 THE INTENSIFICATION EVENT NOTED EARLIER TODAY HAS ENDED. TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT IGNACIO HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE RECENT LEVELING OFF IN INTENSITY. AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SEA OF CORTES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 23.7N 109.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 24.2N 109.6W 90 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 24.6N 110.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 25.0N 110.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 25.7N 111.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 112.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 112.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC