Hurricane IGNACIO

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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003
 
THE INTENSIFICATION EVENT NOTED EARLIER TODAY HAS ENDED. TRMM AND
SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT IGNACIO HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE RECENT LEVELING OFF IN
INTENSITY.  AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS
OF THE SEA OF CORTES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
IGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 23.7N 109.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 24.2N 109.6W    90 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 24.6N 110.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 25.0N 110.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.7N 111.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N 112.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N 112.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W    60 KT
  
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