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Hurricane IGNACIO (Text)

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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IGNACIO HAS FINALLY STRENGTHENED INTO
THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS
MAKES IGNACIO THE LATEST HURRICANE TO FORM IN THIS BASIN IN THE
MODERN ERA. AN EMBEDDED EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 3
HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM SAB. ALSO...DATA T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 77
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...TO 90 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MODESTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/04. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...MOST OF THIS MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO
REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM IGNACIO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND THIS FEATURE
MAY HAVE ALSO HELPED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG. HOWEVER...
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. ALSO...
UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
STRONG AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A NORTHWEST TRACK UP THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHICH COAST WILL IGNACIO TRACK
ALONG. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF BAJA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS MORE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN INITIAL POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE GUNS AND GUNA ENSEMBLE MODELS AND HAS IGNACIO SKIRTING THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND
AFTER 18 HOURS. BEFORE THEN...HOWEVER...IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK IN ABOUT
12 TO 18 HOURS AT 85 TO 90 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS BASED
ON THE WELL-DEVELOPED EYE SIGNATURE AND 30-KT 150 MB NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MAZATLAN 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
OUTFLOW LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AND IS VERY STRONG. AFTERWARDS
...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL STILL BE OVER WATER. ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OR
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD EASILY RESULT IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT IS 10 TO 15 KT STRONGER OR WEAKER AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 22.7N 108.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 23.2N 109.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 23.9N 109.8W    80 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 110.3W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 25.0N 110.8W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 26.7N 111.7W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 28.0N 112.5W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST
120HR VT     29/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST
 
 
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