ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003 AFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED UPON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...2.0 FROM SAB...AND 1.5 FROM AFWA. THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/02. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT ITS MOTION HAS NOT YET RESPONDED TO THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INITIALLY AND THEN SLOWING IT DOWN AGAIN BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AT BEST...FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS THUS LEAVING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAND NEAR 36 HOURS. EVEN THROUGH THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-EMERGE OVER OPEN WATER BEYOND 72 HOURS...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.9N 107.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 21.6N 108.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 22.3N 108.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 23.0N 109.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 23.8N 110.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/0000Z 24.5N 111.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC