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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1506Z SSMI PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR NOW.
 
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...SHOULD INFLUENCE THE STEERING
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OF A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
BAJA.
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM SOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS LONG THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER...AT LEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ROBERTS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.3N 107.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 109.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 22.7N 110.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 111.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N 115.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N 117.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC