Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
 
CORRECTED FOR 48HR FORECAST...CHANGED REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATED

CONVECTION ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HILDA HAS CEASED
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. 

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF 25-26C. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED WEAKENING. HILDA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS. THE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE DISSIPATION OF ITS
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MOTION OVER THE PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSTANT
AT 280/12.  HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THIS TRACK PASSING
SOUTH OF A LARGE WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS...AND
THE UKMET WHICH INDICATE A CONTINUED FORWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE
WEST AT 12 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD ACCELERATE
AFTER 24 HOURS...BUT LITTLE SHOULD REMAIN OF HILDA BY THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER CLARK/ROTH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 19.1N 129.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.4N 131.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.8N 133.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.2N 136.1W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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