Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003

HILDA IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT
NO CLOSER THAN 75 NM FROM THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THIS IS APPARENTLY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE 30 KT.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HILDA IS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WILL
CONTINUE AND IN FACT STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HILDA
WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...AND THE CYCLONE IS CUT OFF FROM ANY WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW.  AS
A RESULT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND HILDA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
  
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY
UPDATES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  MOST GUIDANCE IS NORTH
OF...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL...FASTER THAN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY RESPONDING TO A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W.  GIVEN THE LIMITED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT HILDA
WILL INTERACT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS TROUGH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 18.3N 126.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.6N 128.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.3N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.6N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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