ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE TIGHTENED UP A LITTLE. SOME MODERATE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...T2.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE TIGHTER APPEARING CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12. HILDA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING AT 260/15 BETWEEN 18-23Z. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN DUE WEST AND THAT DIRECTION WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND...THEREFORE...BE STEERED MORE WESTERLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION ...BUT THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE ...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS. HILDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALSO UNDERNEATH 30 KT OR MORE WESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW NOW APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CUT OFF BY THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH HAS RE-DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 14-15N LATITUDE. THEREFORE...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HILDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.5N 127.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 18.9N 129.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.2N 131.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.6N 134.4W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC