Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH
THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE TIGHTENED UP A LITTLE. SOME
MODERATE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT
THAT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...T2.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE TIGHTER
APPEARING CIRCULATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12. HILDA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
MOVING AT 260/15 BETWEEN 18-23Z. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN DUE WEST AND THAT DIRECTION WAS USED FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND...THEREFORE...BE STEERED MORE WESTERLY
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION
...BUT THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 96 HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
HILDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
ALSO UNDERNEATH 30 KT OR MORE WESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS. IN
ADDITION...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW NOW APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN CUT OFF BY THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH
HAS RE-DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 14-15N LATITUDE.
THEREFORE...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HILDA IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.5N 127.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.9N 129.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N 131.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.6N 134.4W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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