ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRIMARY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12. HILD IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HILDA TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT LEAST UNTIL THE STORM WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO DOMINATE. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE BAMD AND LBAR CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR AS HILDA WEAKENS. HILDA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HR. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS OF HILDA BEFORE 120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 18.1N 122.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 18.5N 123.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.8N 126.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 128.7W 25 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 19.3N 131.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/1200Z 20.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATIED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC