Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE PRIMARY PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT...SO
THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12.  HILD IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DIG SOUTHWARD BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HILDA TO CONTINUE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT LEAST UNTIL THE STORM WEAKENS ENOUGH
FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO DOMINATE.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE BAMD AND LBAR CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT CALLS FOR A
WESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR AS HILDA WEAKENS.

HILDA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72
HR.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS OF HILDA BEFORE
120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 18.1N 122.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.5N 123.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.8N 126.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 128.7W    25 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 19.3N 131.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATIED
 
 
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