Tropical Storm HILDA
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HILDA REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 75 NM NORTH
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT
MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35
KT FOR NOW. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS
STRENGTHENING WITH EACH RUN. HILDA IS MOVING AWAY FROM ITS
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND NOW SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ANY MOIST
SOUTHERLY INFLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
SPINDOWN AND DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN A COUPLE DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 300/13. WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED
AND THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND FASTER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.6N 120.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.2N 122.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.6N 124.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.8N 127.4W 25 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
NNNN