Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HILDA REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 75 NM NORTH
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT
MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35
KT FOR NOW.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS
STRENGTHENING WITH EACH RUN.  HILDA IS MOVING AWAY FROM ITS
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND NOW SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ANY MOIST
SOUTHERLY INFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
SPINDOWN AND DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN A COUPLE DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 300/13. WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED
AND THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND FASTER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.6N 120.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.2N 122.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.6N 124.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.8N 127.4W    25 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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