ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO GIVE 35 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED BY INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. I WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11. HILDA'S STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE...AND/OR AN INTERACTION WITH GUILLERMO. WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND DOES NOT SUGGEST AN INTERACTION...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN GUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ONLY THE UKMET SHOWS AN INTERACTION AS THE NOGAPS KEEPS GUILLERMO TOO FAR AWAY FROM HILDA. AT THE MOMENT...GUILLERMO IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN HILDA AND FORECAST TO ACCELERATE...SO THE OFFICIAL THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT GUILLERMO WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF HILDA. THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS NO OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF HILDA. THE SHIPS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH EACH RUN...AND CURRENTLY BRINGS HILDA UP TO ONLY 48 KT. THE SHEAR IS MODEST AND THE WATERS ARE WARM...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO ITS OTHER THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS. THE GFDL CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO MUCH WITH HILDA EITHER. WITH THIS UNANIMITY OF UNENTHUSIASM...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER MAY BE NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN BEFORE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 15.2N 117.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.2N 121.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 16.6N 124.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 126.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 17.0N 135.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W 40 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC