ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO GIVE 35 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER HILDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO BE HALTED BY COOLER SSTS LATER IN THE PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/12. HILDA'S STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE STORM'S FUTURE TRACK WOULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF HILDA. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS HILDA STEERING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF GUILLERMO...AND GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THAT STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH GUILLERMO AND EVENTUALLY A MERGING OF HILDA...GUILLERMO...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 135W IN SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES...AVOIDS SUCH COMPLEXITIES AND KEEPS HILDA SEPARATED FROM GUILLERMO BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 14.9N 116.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 15.5N 118.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.0N 120.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.7N 123.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 139.0W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC