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Tropical Storm HILDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO GIVE 35 KT FOR
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
LOOKING MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER HILDA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO BE HALTED BY COOLER SSTS LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/12.  HILDA'S STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONTROLLED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE.  HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE STORM'S
FUTURE TRACK WOULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF HILDA.  THE U.K.
MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS HILDA STEERING MORE NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF GUILLERMO...AND GRADUALLY MERGING
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THAT STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH GUILLERMO AND EVENTUALLY A
MERGING OF HILDA...GUILLERMO...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 135W IN
SEVERAL DAYS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS
ONES...AVOIDS SUCH COMPLEXITIES AND KEEPS HILDA SEPARATED FROM
GUILLERMO BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 14.9N 116.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.5N 118.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.0N 120.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.7N 123.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 130.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 139.0W    45 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC