ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003 DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ONLY SLIGHTLY. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIR AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO CONDITIONS ARE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT...ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO. IN FACT...TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY MOVE HILDA WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 14.9N 115.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.5N 117.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.6N 124.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC