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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS DEFINED.
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER THAT WAS USED
FOR THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT
AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AN AFWA SATELLITE 
ESTIMATE WAS NOT AVAILABLE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
PATCHES OF WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...CELL TRACKING ONLY
PRODUCED CELL MOTIONS OF 30 KT. THERFORE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT
TAND SEE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION BEFORE
GIVING THIS SYSTEM A NAME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. THE FORWARD MOTION AND
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE INNER-CORE REGION. HOWEVER
...USING A MEAN CENTER POSITION STILL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS
GAINING LATITUDE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST TO SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING. THIS IS DUE TO LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE ADDING
SOME BETA-DRIFT MOTION TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE
CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS AND PEAKING AT 68 KT
IN 72 HOURS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH SSTS 
ABOVE 27C...SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. UNLIKE TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...THIS CYCLONE WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COOLER SSTS...AND THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE LATER PERIODS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 14.1N 114.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 116.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 15.1N 119.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 122.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.2N 129.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W    55 KT
 
 
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