Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED THAT GUILLERMO IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE 
WITH THE LASTEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  

GUILLERMO CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/15. 
THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW 
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING GUILLERMO GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND MERGE WITH THE ITCZ
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.
 
GUILLERMO IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INCLUDES FORECAST POINTS FOR THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF GUILLERMO MERGES WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED ITCZ
DISTURBANCE...DISSIPATION WOULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...THIS IS THE LAST
FORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
GUILLERMO.  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N 140.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.3N 145.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 148.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.1N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 157.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 160.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC