ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER BETWEEN 21-23Z ...BUT SINCE THEN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF TWO INTERLOCKING BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO 30 KT...OR T2.0...FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/13. GUILLERMO IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS...AND BRINGS THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WITHIN ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII BY 120 HOURS. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GUILLERMO OVER 26C SSTS A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW APPEARS TO BE CUT OFF NOW BY THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT HAS REDEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 12-13N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS GUILLERMO BACK UP TO 51 KT IN 120 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 16.4N 135.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 137.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.7N 139.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.9N 141.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.1N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 152.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 156.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC