Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003
 
GUILLERMO REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF GUILLERMO AS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
24-48 HR.  GUILLERMO IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE PICKED UP BY THE
TROUGH...SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD IN BOTH
DIRECTION...BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
UKMET.

THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GUILLERMO OVER ROUGHLY 26C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE
VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE UKMET AND THE
NOGAPS HAVE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
CALLING FOR WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR BUT ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO LAST FOR 5 DAYS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 16.0N 132.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 16.3N 136.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 138.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 141.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC