Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 03Z SHOWED WINDS STILL VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SINCE THEN.
GUILLERMO IS NOW GENERATING JUST A FEW INTERMITTENT PUFFS OF
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST POSITIONS ARE GIVEN OUT TO 120 HOURS...I DO NOT REALLY
EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO PERSIST THAT LONG.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
NORTHWARD AND SLOWER TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 15.8N 131.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.9N 133.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 16.0N 135.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 16.2N 137.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 152.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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