ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003 GUILLERMO HAS BEEN GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION BUT WITH NO BANDING OR OTHER SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AT BEST ONLY A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. THE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE BUT IS BELIEVED TO STILL BE ON THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11. GUILLERMO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS PROVIDING A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO. THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND BRINGS ITS REMNANTS AROUND THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP GUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS. WITH INCREASING WESTERLIES AND STABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A LITTLE STRENGTHING IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS HARD TO ENVISION IN THE FACE OF THE EXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.4N 128.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 15.5N 132.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 15.5N 134.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 15.5N 143.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 15.5N 148.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 153.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC