Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

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TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003
 
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
BANDING OR OTHER SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE
ON THE CYCLONE. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AT BEST ONLY
A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
 
THE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE BUT IS BELIEVED TO STILL BE ON THE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
270/11. GUILLERMO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
PROVIDING A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...AND THIS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATING THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
GUILLERMO. THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND BRINGS ITS REMNANTS AROUND
THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP
GUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND
SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
 
WITH INCREASING WESTERLIES AND STABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE STRENGTHING IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS HARD TO ENVISION IN
THE FACE OF THE EXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 15.4N 128.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N 132.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.5N 134.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 143.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 148.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 153.5W    25 KT
 
 
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