ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003 GUILLERMO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. IR IMAGERY SHOWS IRREGULARLY-SHAPED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT BANDING IS ILL-DEFINED. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT. SINCE THE SHEAR OVER THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDENT ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND/OR THE PRESENCE OF MORE STABLE AIR. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ASSUMES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SO THAT A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF GUILLERMO. THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER DUE TO THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 16.0N 121.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 16.0N 125.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 127.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.0N 129.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.0N 139.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 144.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC