Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

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TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003

GUILLERMO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.  IR
IMAGERY SHOWS IRREGULARLY-SHAPED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
BANDING IS ILL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS
SUPPORTS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT.  SINCE THE SHEAR OVER THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE FUTURE
INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDENT ON SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND/OR THE PRESENCE OF MORE STABLE AIR.  THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ASSUMES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SO THAT A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO
THE NORTH OF GUILLERMO.  THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER DUE TO THE
FASTER INITIAL MOTION.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 16.0N 121.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.0N 125.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 127.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 16.0N 129.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 139.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 144.0W    35 KT
 
 
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