Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003
 
GUILLERMO HAS SHOWN MIXED SIGNALS DURING THE DAY.  ON ONE SIDE...
SSM/I DATA RECEIVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A POSSIBLE EYE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CLOUD
PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW NEAR 17N125W.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THESE AND
THE POSSIBLE EYE...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS ABOUT A HALF DEGREE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
THIS COMES FROM MOTION OR REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 250/7.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GUILLERMO IS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
COURSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE STILL
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE
SPEED REMAINS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SHIFTED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWARD BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.  THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.

THE ABOVE BEING SAID...THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE TRACK FORECAST
POSSIBILITY.  AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED NEAR 13N107W IS
WEAKER...BUT LARGER THAN GUILLERMO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THE TWO SYSTEMS COULD INTERACT...AND SUCH AN INTERACTION COULD
CAUSE A DIFFERENT TRACK FOR GUILLERMO THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THIS YET.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY SHEAR
COULD PERSIST FOR 24 HR OR MORE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF
GUILLERMO MOVES WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST ENOUGH SHEAR TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM
STRENGTHENING...AND THE GFDL STRENGTHENS IT AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE SHEAR WILL ONLY SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT AND FORECASTS THE STORM TO REACH 60 KT IN 36-48 HR.  
WHILE THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPS THE STORM IN WARMER WATER THAN
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AFTER 72 HR GUILLERMO SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO COOLER WATER TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 16.0N 119.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.9N 122.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 127.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 131.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W    50 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC